Once a sports team appears to be on the rise, or has won a championship and aspires for a repeat the following year, it would seem reasonable to anticipate that they will achieve even greater success the next season, right? Unfortunately, this is not always the case for supporters of that team.
In what has been termed a “championship hangover,” a team reaches the peak of its sport and then tends to perform poorly the following season, either failing to qualify for the postseason or quitting the playoffs early.
Let’s examine the hangover effect after a team has won a trophy and how a statistical theory from baseball might be applied to other U.S. major sports.
Absolutely Nothing Is Worse Than a Hangover
First, we examine the top eight championship hangovers, team by squad. The Washington Redskins earned the dubious distinction of coming in first place. The franchise has won three championships, and when we compared the average win percentage of their championship years to the average win percentage of their subsequent seasons, there was a significant decrease of 25%. The average win percentage of championship years was 83%, while the average win percentage of subsequent seasons was 63%.
However, they are not alone in this area. The Denver Broncos had a 24% average decline following their three championship seasons, while the New York Giants had a 23% average decline after their four championship seasons.
When broken down by individual seasons, however, the percentage fluctuations are significantly greater. The San Francisco 49ers, for instance, saw a 59% decline in win percentage following their 1981 championship victory, moving from a division-winning 13-3 season to a pitiful 3-6 season during the strike-shortened 1982 campaign.
Check out the Broncos’ championship hangover after they repeated as champions in 1997 and 1998: their 1988 season win percentage was 88%, followed by a disastrous 1999 season in which their win percentage plunged to 38% (a change of 57%). John Elway, the starting quarterback for those two incredible seasons, left after the second triumph, leaving the organization without his unique skill set and repeat visits to the Super Bowl in 1999, when they finished last in their division.
The NBA Finals and the Resulting Hangovers
First, we examine the top eight championship hangovers, team by squad. The Washington Redskins earned the dubious distinction of coming in first place. The franchise has won three championships, and when we compared the average win percentage of their championship years to the average win percentage of their subsequent seasons, there was a significant decrease of 25%. The average win percentage of championship years was 83%, while the average win percentage of subsequent seasons was 63%.
However, they are not alone in this area. The Denver Broncos had a 24% average decline following their three championship seasons, while the New York Giants had a 23% average decline after their four championship seasons.
When broken down by individual seasons, however, the percentage fluctuations are significantly greater. The San Francisco 49ers, for instance, saw a 59% decline in win percentage following their 1981 championship victory, moving from a division-winning 13-3 season to a pitiful 3-6 season during the strike-shortened 1982 campaign.
Check out the Broncos’ championship hangover after they repeated as champions in 1997 and 1998: their 1988 season win percentage was 88%, followed by a disastrous 1999 season in which their win percentage plunged to 38% (a change of 57%). John Elway, the starting quarterback for those two incredible seasons, left after the second triumph, leaving the organization without his unique skill set and repeat visits to the Super Bowl in 1999, when they finished last in their division.
The NBA Finals and the Resulting Hangovers
The NBA is also susceptible to title hangovers. We compared the average win percentage from all championship years to the average win percentage of the years that followed to determine which team’s drop-off was the worst. The New York Knicks, who have won two championships, topped the list with a 39% decline. The Philadelphia 76ers followed with a 37% decline, followed by the Detroit Pistons with a 34% change.
Next, we examined the worst single-year hangovers. After their 1998 championship season, the Chicago Bulls suffered a massive decline. This was their third victory in the last three seasons and sixth in the last eight years. What was different in 1999? Michael Jordan retired with his six championship rings and great skills. While their win rate dropped by 66% from one season to the next, the 1998-99 NBA season was unique in its own sense owing to a lengthy lockout that lasted many months. Jordan’s retirement and the lockout contributed significantly to the Bulls’ eighth-place finish.
The next club with the most performance fall was the Boston Celtics. They failed not repeat as champions in 1970, resulting in a 29% decline in their victory percentage. Over the course of 13 seasons, they brought home 11 trophies. This was their last finals victory amid a lengthy span of repetition after repeat (after repeat).
The Dallas Mavericks saw a 22% decline from their 2010-11 championship season and the following year. Several players, including Tyson Chandler, DeShawn Stevenson, and J.J. Barea, were also released because of the impending lockout. The Mavs returned to the playoffs the following season, but were eliminated in the first round of the Western Conference.
Not Able to Swing a Repeat
Here, we examine how MLB clubs perform after winning a World Series in seven games. The Florida Marlins came out on top with a 25% improvement between the average of their two championship years and the subsequent years. The Tigers were not far behind with a 19% difference between the average of their four World Series victories and the seasons that followed.
Similar to other sports, it is simple to detect even greater variances when comparing seasons individually. For instance, the 1997 Marlins had a fantastic season and won 92 games before defeating the Indians 4-3 in the World Series. The next season, they finished in last place in their division with only 54 victories, a differential of 41%. Its lackluster performance on the field was likely a result of the franchise’s enormous “fire sale” following the World Series, in which they traded a large number of their most noteworthy players.
After winning the 2013 World Series, the Boston Red Sox went from first to last in their division, a 27% drop in their win percentage. Intriguingly, they were also in worst place the season prior to this World Series victory, thus in three years they moved from worst to first to worst again.
After winning the 2002 World Series, the Los Angeles Angels (then known as the Anaheim Angels) endured a similar decline. That year, they nearly won 100 games (99-63) and won the World Series by defeating the San Francisco Giants 4-3. In 2003, however, they did not have a winning record and did not make the playoffs.
Your Winning Season Has Ended
Finally, we will examine the NHL. The Los Angeles Kings won two championships, but the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils topped our list because the average win percentage of both championship-winning seasons was 13% greater than the seasons that followed.
However, when we analyzed decreases by season, they were significantly greater. For instance, the Detroit Red Wings’ winning percentage changed by 52% after their 1937 Stanley Cup season. This was their second title (and second in a row) and third final appearance in four seasons; nonetheless, they dropped from first to fourth place and did not make the playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the next team on our list of dubious distinctions. Following the 1948 Stanley Cup Final, their decline wasn’t as severe as the Red Wings’ (a 31% disparity), but they still experienced a slump. The next year, however, was not a total loss for the club, as they fell in the playoffs, and the year after that, they once again hoisted the Stanley Cup.
Observing It All Unfold…
Once a sports team has achieved glory, it is not always simple to maintain its dominance. As seasons progress, teams are influenced by several things, including injuries, retirements, salary caps, strikes, and the Plexiglass Principle. Although repeating as champion is feasible, it is not necessarily a given after a franchise has reached its pinnacle for the season. However, it is undoubtedly entertaining to observe how each season unfolds!
Methods and Restrictions
For this research, we retrieved championship data from sports-reference.com on Jan. 22, 2019, for the four main American sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL). We analyzed the NFL’s championship records since 1970, the NBA’s since 1950, the MLB’s World Series since 1969, and the NHL’s since 1937. To find the worst post-championship “hangovers,” we averaged the win percentages of all subsequent seasons and ranked them from lowest to highest. Only clubs with at least two championship victories were considered for inclusion in these rankings. Each club is represented throughout its history by its most recent team name.
The primary constraint of this study is that the source data may be insufficient or absent. In addition, abbreviated seasons were not eliminated from this research; hence, events (such as a player lockout) may impact the rankings. Another disadvantage of this study is that championship “hangovers” are prone to change with time, which might affect the highest championship “hangover” rankings among the clubs in each league. This content was designed only for amusement purposes.